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Billions of Meals at Risk Due to Iran War, Says Fertiliser Industry Chief
A severe disruption in global fertiliser supply chains triggered by ongoing conflict in Iran is threatening worldwide food production, with industry leaders warning that up to 10 billion meals per week could be lost if the crisis continues. The warning comes from Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, one of the world’s largest fertiliser producers, who has raised alarm over the cascading effects of geopolitical instability in the Gulf region.
According to Holsether, the blockage of key shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly reduced the movement of nitrogen-based fertilisers and essential raw materials. These disruptions have already halted large-scale production in multiple countries, reducing agricultural output capacity at a critical global moment.
Global Food Security Under Pressure
Fertiliser plays a vital role in modern agriculture, particularly nitrogen-based compounds used to enhance crop yield. When supply chains are disrupted, farmers are forced to reduce fertiliser usage, leading to lower crop production. Experts warn that even a small reduction in fertiliser availability can have exponential impacts on global food systems.
The current crisis has escalated due to tensions in the Gulf region, where Iran is a major producer of key fertiliser ingredients such as ammonia and urea. The conflict has led to a partial blockade of shipping routes, severely limiting exports.
Economists warn that reduced agricultural output could trigger a global “bidding war” for food supplies, increasing prices and disproportionately affecting low-income countries that rely heavily on food imports.
Impact on Developing Countries
While countries like the United Kingdom are unlikely to face immediate food shortages, rising production costs are expected to increase supermarket prices within months. However, the greatest impact will be felt in developing nations across Africa, South Asia, and parts of the Middle East.
In these regions, food budgets already consume a large portion of household income. Any increase in food prices could lead to hunger, malnutrition, and political instability.
Shipping Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes, has seen a dramatic decline in fertiliser-related shipments since the conflict escalated. This narrow waterway is responsible for a significant portion of global fertiliser exports, and any disruption has immediate international consequences.
Data from shipping monitors shows a sharp decline in outbound fertiliser volumes since February 2026, falling far below the Q1 2025 baseline. Industry analysts say the trend could worsen if geopolitical tensions continue.
Fertiliser Shipment Decline (Strait of Hormuz - 2026)
Graph shows estimated decline in fertiliser shipments since conflict escalation.
Potential Global Economic Consequences
The fertiliser crisis is not just an agricultural issue—it is an economic one. Reduced food production can lead to inflation, supply shortages, and increased pressure on governments to subsidise food prices.
Analysts warn that prolonged disruption could destabilise global commodity markets, affecting wheat, rice, corn, and other staple crops. This would place additional pressure on already fragile supply chains that are still recovering from previous global disruptions.
Call for International Action
Industry leaders are urging governments in Europe and beyond to carefully consider the consequences of trade restrictions and geopolitical escalation. Holsether emphasized that policy decisions must account for the humanitarian impact in vulnerable regions.
“Food is a basic human need,” he said. “When it becomes unaffordable or unavailable, the consequences are severe and far-reaching.”
Diplomatic efforts and alternative supply routes are now being explored, but experts warn that restoring stability in fertiliser markets could take months or even years depending on how the conflict evolves.